August 1, 2025

The Current State of the Texas Economy

News Summary

Texas is experiencing a downturn in its job market, with recent reports indicating a loss of around 16,000 jobs in June. The Dallas-Fort Worth area saw the largest impact, losing about 10,000 jobs. Despite these challenges, Texas has added over 215,500 jobs in the past year, showing resilience and a growth rate that exceeds the national average. The economy faces uncertainty due to global tariffs affecting key sectors, but the state’s employment landscape still shows potential for recovery.

Texas experienced a significant downturn in its economy during June, with an announcement from the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealing a loss of 16,000 jobs. This downturn is part of a broader trend affecting various sectors and has raised caution about the overall economic stability in the state.

The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area accounted for approximately 10,000 of these job losses, marking a dramatic shift for this previously thriving region. Nonfarm payrolls fell from 4,312,800 in May to 4,302,500 in June, indicating that the labor market is tightening. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, in its analysis, supports these findings, pointing to widespread job losses across different sectors, particularly in oil and gas as well as professional and business services.

In addition to the significant losses in Dallas-Fort Worth, other urban centers in Texas were not immune to the economic shifts. The city of Austin experienced a loss of about 1,000 jobs, while both Houston and San Antonio managed to maintain stable employment levels during the same period. In contrast, only specific sectors such as information services, education and health, and government saw job additions in June, highlighting a concerning imbalance within the job market.

The overall unemployment rate in Texas stood at 3.8% for June, demonstrating a decrease of 0.5% from the previous year. However, this figure also represents a slight uptick of 0.1% from May 2025. The economic landscape across Texas presents a mixed picture, with certain areas showing growth while others lag behind.

Experts predict a slowdown in both consumer spending and business investments, contributing to a sense of uncertainty. The Federal Reserve’s employment forecast released on July 18 indicated a downward revision for job growth expectations from 2% to 1.7% for 2025. This data suggests potential challenges ahead, particularly in sectors heavily reliant on export activities.

Global tariffs are further complicating the economic scenario for Texas, with ongoing trade policies generating uncertainty. The Perryman Group estimates that such tariffs could potentially lead to the loss of 97,000 jobs in Texas, affecting key sectors such as machinery, chemicals, and electronics. An increase in tariffs by as much as 30% could result in a projected loss of $28.8 billion in consumer spending and over 96,900 job losses across the state.

Despite these recent job losses, Texas had enjoyed a period of remarkable employment growth in the months leading up to June, with record levels of job creation being reported regularly. As of April, the labor force reached an all-time high of 15,814,400, and the state gained over 215,500 jobs year-on-year, achieving a growth rate of 1.5%, outpacing the national average.

In conclusion, while Texas has seen impressive job growth over time, the recent job losses in June raise concerns about the future economic climate. With uncertainty in both national trade policies and local job markets, the state must navigate these challenges carefully to ensure continued economic vitality.

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Author: STAFF HERE GEORGETOWN

The GEORGETOWN STAFF WRITER represents the experienced team at HEREgeorgetown.com, your go-to source for actionable local news and information in Georgetown, Williamson County, and beyond. Specializing in "news you can use," we cover essential topics like product reviews for personal and business needs, local business directories, politics, real estate trends, neighborhood insights, and state news affecting the area—with deep expertise drawn from years of dedicated reporting and strong community input, including local press releases and business updates. We deliver top reporting on high-value events such as the Red Poppy Festival, Georgetown Swirl, and Christmas Stroll. Our coverage extends to key organizations like the Georgetown Chamber of Commerce and the Downtown Georgetown Association, plus leading businesses in manufacturing and tourism that power the local economy such as local wineries and historic downtown shops. As part of the broader HERE network, including HEREaustin.com, HEREcollegestation.com, HEREdallas.com, HEREhouston.com, HEREgeorgetown.com, and HEREsanantonio.com, we provide comprehensive, credible insights into Texas's dynamic landscape.